Snipe prediction market
edges before the oracle settles
Statistical models detect mispriced contracts on Polymarket's ultra-short BTC markets. Trades execute in the final seconds before Chainlink settlement, when the edge is widest and most predictable.
Five stages. Sub-second decisions.
Market Discovery
Scans Polymarket's Gamma API for active 5-minute BTC contracts. Filters by liquidity, spread, and time-to-settlement.
gamma-apiMulti-Source Pricing
Pulls real-time BTC spot from Binance, on-chain oracle price from Chainlink, and orderbook depth via WebSocket. Three price feeds, one truth.
ccxt + web3 + wsSignal Ensemble
Z-score spread analysis, Bayesian probability updates, and Monte Carlo simulation vote independently. Average consensus reduces false positives.
scipy + numpyKelly Sizing
Fractional Kelly criterion calculates optimal position size relative to edge magnitude and model variance. Conservative by default, never over-exposed.
0.5x kellyOracle Front-Run
In the final 10 seconds before Chainlink settlement, when spot price diverges from the implied market price, execute. The edge is structural and repeatable.
clob-apiMost bots go wide. We go deep.
Statistical, Not LLM
Competitors use GPT-4 and Claude to forecast markets. That's slow, expensive, and inconsistent. Z-score, Bayesian, and Monte Carlo run in milliseconds for pennies.
One Market, Deep
While others scan 500+ markets, OracleSnipe specializes in BTC 5-minute contracts. Deep expertise on one instrument beats shallow coverage of everything.
Oracle Timing Edge
Chainlink oracle updates lag spot price. In the final seconds before settlement, that lag becomes a structural, repeatable edge that statistical models can exploit.
Kelly-Optimized Risk
Half-Kelly sizing means only 11% chance of halving bankroll before doubling. Every trade is right-sized to the edge, never over-leveraged.
What a cycle looks like
[12:05:01] Found 3 active contracts
[12:05:02] BTC spot: $97,241.50 | Oracle: $97,238.00 | Delta: +$3.50
[12:05:02] Market YES @ 0.52 | Implied: 0.61 | Z-score: 2.4
[12:05:02] Bayes: 0.63 | MC: 0.59 | Consensus: 0.61
[12:05:03] Edge detected: +9.2% | Remaining: 8s
[12:05:03] Kelly size: 4.1% of bankroll ($41.00)
[12:05:03] EXECUTE BUY YES @ 0.52 | Size: $41.00
[12:05:10] Settlement: YES | P&L: +$37.72
[12:05:10] Compounding... New bankroll: $1,037.72
The era of spray-and-pray bots is ending
Prediction markets reward precision, not volume. OracleSnipe is built on one belief: a single well-timed trade beats a hundred mediocre ones. Statistical rigor. Oracle timing. Disciplined sizing. Repeat.